Multivariate Disaggregation of Sectorial gdp for theDepartment of Bolívar, Colombia

Abstract

The availability of series such as annual GDP for the departments of Colombia is essential for short-term analysis of regional economic activity. For the department of Bolivar, as for the rest of Colombian departments, GDP estimates are only available on an annual basis. The series that could determine their behavior are only available in uninterrupted form on a six-month basis. We implement the methodology of ex post disaggregation of multivariate time series proposed by Nieto (2007), to search, within the available series, for a set of variables that enable us to estimate, for six-month periods GDP for the industrial, tourist and construction sectors in Bolívar for the period 2000-2010. We find that the variables "installed capacity", "new housing production index", "hotel occupancy index" and "foreign tourist arrivals" are adequate when disaggregating this indicator.